Once upon a time, just over 100 wins ago, the St. Louis Cardinals began last season with not a whole lot in the expectations department. Few with common sense picked them to finish higher than third in the NL Central. Then, well…we all know what happened.
The Redbirds managed to prove a lot of people wrong in 2004. To be fair, some of the faults preseason naysayers pointed out turned out to be valid-weak spots in the rotation or a lack of timely hitting, to name a few. Yet, only one team in all of baseball managed to fully exploit those foibles: the Boston Red Sox.
Now with a new season on the horizon, it's time again for preseason prognostication. Unsurprisingly, quite a few people outside of St. Louis have grown cold to the Cardinals, just four short months after their season's end.
Really, to gauge St. Louis' talent this season versus last, it comes down to the impact of Edgar Renteria. No matter how you spin it, the Cards made a mistake in letting him go. He is in the midst of a Hall of Fame career, and it will be painful to see him in a Boston outfit. The loss will have an impact: But just how significant will it be?
Now, I'm no math whiz, so allow me to put it in a way Cubs fans and the numerically challenged can understand. If you have a really big number and subtract, say, 50, it doesn't have much of an effect. Now if you have a small number and take away 50, that number could be looking really, really small. The Cardinals' lineup is a big number. It's like the difference between stealing from a rich man and a poor man. You dig? Even sans Edgar, ESPN still rates the Cardinal lineup as the best in the National League. Opposing pitchers probably agree.
Yes, there were more losses than Edgar. Tony Womack, gone as well, had a career year last season. It's unlikely he will ever again produce the same numbers or maintain his health the way he did in '04. Looking at it that way, signing David Eckstein as the lead-off hitter is a push that could potentially end up in the Cards' favor. Their on-base percentages were nearly indistinguishable last season (both around .340), with Eckstein holding the career edge (at .347 versus .319).
As for the bullpen, at any point last season, if you threatened a Cubs fan with Kiko Calero, Steve Kline or Dan Haren, they would have laughed. Talk to that same fan now, and odds are, he'll tell you their absence is the reason the Cards are going down.
Kline and Calero had exceptional seasons, and Haren was more of a future prospect that finished the season on a high note. Changing of the guard in the bullpen is a commonality in Major League Baseball these days.
Furthermore, Mark Mulder and a prospectively healthy Chris Carpenter add clout to an already more than serviceable rotation. Combined, this year's rotation amassed 78 wins in '04. Not quite as much will be expected of the pen.
Not all of the news is cheery, though. Reports from Florida have been littered with not-too-encouraging reports of nagging injuries affecting the club thus far. Scott Rolen's knee is still not in great shape. Albert Pujols' foot remains a bit gimpy. Larry Walker has a bad back. Clearly, maintaining health is a factor.
Don't let the doomsdayers take control yet, no matter what your team. Taking a macro look at the Cards balance of talent on this squad may be better than last year's. Now look at the Cubs and at the Astros; they both have great pitching, and…we'll leave it at that. After all, everyone deserves hope in spring training. Unless you're a Royals fan, that is; you guys can pretty much write the season off now.
It's true, last year was a storybook for the Cardinals. Everything fell into place. Result: They won 105 games. Just about everything went right up until the World Series. It's unfair to demand they replicate that in 2005.
Not everything needs to be perfect, but if all goes well, the Cards have over 90 wins in them-which should be enough to take the Central again. Even if they are 10 games worse, the Cards will probably still make the playoffs. And with a pitching rotation better suited for the postseason, who knows…they might live happily ever after.
