It is currently believed that Americans love polls, and hate them .with a passion. The emotion is based solely on who gets the majority of percentage points, and who receives the minority. Many times the accuracy of these magic numbers does not matter due to the fact that a large amount of the population still find the results to be gospel.
This is seen in an Indiana Straw Poll where the results caused backers of presidential hopefuls, Dan Quale and Elizabeth Dole, to pull out. However in a recent poll taken by the St. Louis Post Dispatch and KMOV (Channel 4), the reaction does not seem to be as rough.
The results of this poll show that Democratic Presidential nominee, Vice President Al Gore, is 4.9 percentage points ahead of Republican nominee, Texas Gov. George W. Bush. Pollster John Zogby of Zogby International, who directed the poll, noted in the article accompanying that there is a 4.1% margin of error, and that Gore could be ahead by as much as 13.1 percentage points, or that Bush could be ahead by 3.3 percentage points.
These projections in margin of error though are believed to be false by some scholars. SLU professor, Dr. Ken Warren, who is currently writing a book entitled “In Defense of Public Opinion Poling,” believes that the numbers within the article are accurate, however their use of margin of error is wrong.
By using an obscure number like 4.1 (traditionally, the margin of error is measured in increments of .5 at a time) Warren believes that the publication is in a larger sense covering its back. “Newspapers don’t dare commit themselves, now more than ever. Using error margin keeps them from upsetting too many people.”
Warren also remarked on the amount of times a newspaper, or media-related group has overgeneralized covering this election. “This poll [the one taken by the Post Dispatch and KMOV] shows that Gore is ahead by 16 points in Illinois, but the headline still reads `Vice President pulling ahead of GOP rival.” said Warren, “Seven, eight, or even nine points is pulling ahead, not 16.”
Despite the media, Warren believes that the numbers are indeed true, and that these same numbers may reflect the November election better than anything, due to the fact that the September polls have predicted the winner for the last 50 years.
Missouri has been significant in the race for about the past 40 years. Whoever this state has chosen, wins the race. It is what is known as a “bellwether state,” for its tradition of favoring the winner.
The motivation for Gore’s recent popularity can found in his tremendous bounce off the Democratic National Convention, which saw the Vice President take a 10 percent jump in the polls. This is the second-largest known bounce off a convention by any presidential candidate. The largest was by current president, Bill Clinton, in 1992.
“Admittedly,” said Warren, “I thought Bush would be unstoppable last year, but since he has stepped further into the public eye, his support has eroded.”
College Republicans are not worried though about Bush’s sudden loss in popularity.
President of the College Republicans, Mike Benoist, said, “[Gores lead] is the result of his convention bounce, and Bush took some time off as well.”
John Burke, president of the Young Democrats, gave his view on the polling statistics, stating, “I think Bush feels cornered . I think the American people are sensing that, and that’s caused him to drop in polls.”
Burke also noted that, in his opinion, Gore had a surge of momentum following the announcement of his running mate Joe Lieberman, but that the momentum had slightly faltered since then.
