Missouri voters chose between the living and the dead for United States Senate two years ago. However, this year, the candidates are Democratic Senator Jean Carnahan, the widow of former candidate and governor Mel Carnahan, and Jim Talent, a former Congressman who lost the gubernatorial election in 2000.
This year’s election has been considered one of the most controversial of 2002 due to the fact that Democrats have the Senate majority by one seat. If Carnahan loses, the balance of power may shift in the Senate, giving Republicans control.
“This election is extremely important,” Ken Warren Ph.D., a professor in political science at Saint Louis University, said. “You can sway one or two votes, but a shift in power would change the committee heads (from Democrat to Republican).”
One of the first Zogby polls taken in April showed Carnahan in control, but in August, after his television advertising campaign, Talent pulled ahead. However, the latest poll taken by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and Zogby show Carnahan has pulled ahead by 7.3 percent, with only six weeks remaining until the election on Nov. 5.
Of 501 people polled, 47.6 percent supported Carnahan, while 40.3 percent backed Talent. The margin of error, however, is 4.5 percent, which could go in either direction.
Much of her gain is accredited toward a recent push toward television advertising. Until a couple weeks ago, the Carnahan campaign had not aired many commercials, while Talent’s have been running since early to mid-August.
“Blitzing with commercials reminded people that she is running,” Warren said.
While allowing an opponent to run unanswered advertisements for so long may seem like a mistake, Warren notes that spending advertising dollars now will allow Carnahan’s campaign to spend more later in the election and warns that advertising too early may cause one’s campaign to peak prematurely and taper off.
Carnahan has also been backed by organized labor in Missouri. AFL-CIO president John Sweeny officially put the organization’s support behind Carnahan, claiming she is working to protect social security, workers’ pensions and a Medicare prescription drug benefit, while criticizing Talent for being too close to big business.
However, earlier this week, Talent was officially backed by the National Rifle Association, who claimed Carnahan’s record has not favored the Second Amendment.
In a letter that was read to a group of local members, Talent noted that, “I am a strong supporter of the Second Amendment.”
While Carnahan appears to be in control of the race, she has not personally taken to the campaign trail yet. Critics feel that this is where Talent may outshine his opponent because he has held offices in Congress and the Missouri Legislature before and is noted for his charisma.
“Talent is a bright, quick and smooth politician,” Warren said. “Where Carnahan may come off as being rough around the edges and not as bright.”
However, this edge may be a disadvantage for Talent. In upcoming debates, he may beat Carnahan so bad, that she looks good.
“In the 2000 election, a debate team may have believed that Gore won,” Warren said. “However he appeared as being domineering to many viewers.”
The election is expected to come down to its final days, but will not be the only close Senate election.
In Minnesota, Democratic incumbent Paul Wellstone is attempting to fight off Republican challenger Norm Coleman. And in South Dakota Democratic incumbent Tim Johnson is facing stiff opposition from Representative John Thune.
However, the Senate is not the only political battleground in Washington, D.C. this fall. Only six seats of 435 separate control of the House of Representatives, with 30 races being considered close.
“The Bush Administration wants a Republican Congress,” Warren said. “It would make a big difference in his policy agenda.”
