Hollywood’s relationship with the Oscars is an odd one. Started in 1929 by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, around the time of the first movies with sound, the ceremony has slowly evolved from a relatively quiet banquet with minimal fanfare to a spectacle where a mere nomination can entitle bragging rights and, more importantly, increased box office profits. Over the years, many stars have been vocal about their dislike of the awards. In a notorious case, Marlon Brando refused to attend and accept his award for The Godfather and, instead, sent a supposed Native American woman in his place to bring awareness to her nation’s plight. On the other hand, actors like Adrien Brody, winner for The Pianist, Goldie Hawn, winner for Cactus Flower; and Anna Paquin, winner for The Piano, have attained new heights through a win.
It is with this mixed history of resentment and unpredictability that this year’s ceremony approaches. In one of the tightest races in years, this year’s nominees for Best Picture include all the expected choices except one: Dreamgirls, the movie that many had been eying for the win. In its place, depending on who you ask, is either Little Miss Sunshine or Letters from Iwo Jima, two films with surprising nominations. Little Miss Sunshine, this year’s underdog, has not stopped gaining steam since it arrived in theatres. It seemed to sneak up, as did Letters from Iwo Jima, Clint Eastwood’s World War II drama from the Japanese perspective which was originally scheduled to be released in 2007. If Little Miss Sunshine were to win, however, it would be the first film to do so without a nomination for Best Director since Driving Miss Daisy in 1989, an unlikely feat. Rounding out the category are The Departed, The Queen and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s interlocking narrative Babel. While, in past years, one or two of the nominated films have seemed to be clear frontrunners, this year, any of the five nominated has a fair shot. Many are predicting Babel will win, but The Departed’s win at the Director’s Guild and Writer’s Guild Awards and Little Miss Sunshine’s wins at the Screen Actor’s and Writer’s Guild Awards could indicate an upset.
Best director is much easier to predict this year , it might finally go to the oft-snubbed Martin Scorsese, if his recent victory at the Director’s Guild Awards is any indication. Even if The Departed does not win, all signs point to him taking home the trophy. However, this kind of thinking can be dangerous. Clint Eastwood can never be counted out, and his work on Letters from Iwo Jima has certainly been acclaimed. Then there are Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu and Stephen Frears, two directors whose films (Babel and The Queen) have picked up awards throughout the year. The surprise nominee in this category, Paul Greengrass for United 93, replaced the husband and wife team of Jonathon Dayton and Valarie Faris of Little Miss Sunshine, and now occupies the lone director spot that is not connected to a Best Picture nominee.
If there is a contest that is completely sewn up, it would have to be Best Actress. Since her victory at the Berlin Film Festival this time last year, Helen Mirren has not stopped winning for her performance as Queen Elizabeth II in The Queen. According to the institutions running bets on this year, she’s the safest choice there has ever been and has won practically everything, from the Golden Globe to the African American Critics’ Association Award. Her main competition, if you can call it that, is Meryl Streep for her devious turn in The Devil Wears Prada and Dame Judi Dench for her psychotic role as an obsessed teacher in Notes on a Scandal. Though neither stands much of a chance, they still have better odds than Kate Winslet for the little-seen Little Children. As for Penelope Cruz, nominated for the Spanish-language Volver, a win for her would be one of the very few in a foreign language since Sophia Loren won for 1960’s Two Women.
Almost as locked up is a win for Forest Whitaker’s portrayal of Dictator Idi Amin in The Last King of Scotland. Winner of numerous critic awards, the Golden Globe and the Screen Actor’s Guild Award, Whitaker seems unstoppable. If there is anyone who can steal his thunder, it is Peter O’Toole, the perennially nominated but neglected actor of films like Lawrence of Arabia, for his turn as an aging actor in Venus. If Academy voters feel like it is time for O’Toole to have an Oscar, it is conceivable they could vote for a lifetime achievement award. Other nominations for Will Smith in the feel-good flick The Pursuit of Happyness and Ryan Gosling in this year’s critically acclaimed performance in Half Nelson have the nominations as reward enough. As for Leonardo DiCaprio’s nomination for Blood Diamond, his chances are slim. Had he been recognized instead for his role in Scorsese’s The Departed, a film more critically admired, perhaps his chances could have improved.
In the supporting categories, it seems that former American Idol contestant Jennifer Hudson and comedian Eddie Murphy will both be picking up trophies for their roles in the musical Dreamgirls. Hudson is the Cinderella story of the year and shows no signs of slowing down. Actresses like Cate Blanchett in Notes on a Scandal and Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi in Babel delivered strong turns, but none has seemingly drawn in the audience more than Hudson has in her pivotal scene in Dreamgirls, singing to an empty theater that she will not be cast off. Abigail Breslin, also in the running for Little Miss Sunshine, follows in the footsteps of past child nominees like Tatum O’Neal and Anna Paquin and, if there is a surprise on Oscar night, it could be this little girl who goes home one Academy Award richer. As for Murphy, his win seems likely, if not set in stone. Alan Arkin, nominated for his role as a wise-cracking grandpa in Little Miss Sunshine, could win because he is seen as overdue. His win at the BAFTAs, the British equivalent of the Oscars, shows his growth in support. Nominees Mark Wahlberg for The Departed and Jackie Earl Haley for Little Children are underdogs and are not likely to make too much of a surge. Djimon Honsou, a nominee for Blood Diamond, alongside Leonardo DiCaprio, has no hope.
Lastly are the awards for screenplay that, if their recent wins at the Writer’s Guild Awards are any indication, are certain to go to The Departed for Adapted Screenplay and Little Miss Sunshine for Original Screenplay. Though not definite, a surprise win by The Queen or Little Children is not totally out of the question. It seems that the Academy Awards will follow the tide of what the rest of the awards have predicted.
2006’s impact in film will be summed up on Sunday night at the 79th Annual Academy Awards. For months, the entertainment industry has been abuzz with anticipation, eagerly awaiting Sunday night with bated breath to see if the money that they have burned up campaigning was worth it. Soon, the world will find out which movies and performances are the best of the year or, perhaps, which ones had the best campaigns and garnered the most votes. The ceremony airs live at 7 p.m. Sunday night on ABC.
