America’s next president could be nominated by his or her party by Tsunami Tuesday. Tsunami Tuesday, more commonly known as Super Tuesday, is, in fact, this Tuesday, Feb. 5. It is incredibly important, because that’s when 24 states will hold their primaries or caucuses for one or both political parties. If you’re a political junkie, you can’t wait for the Tsunami to roll by so you can see how your candidate performed. If you’re apathetic, you can be glad that you won’t have to hear so much about campaigning until the general election in November.
Believe it or not, only eight states had their primaries or caucuses scheduled for Feb. 5 a year ago today. In order to stop the utter pandemonium of 48 states considering-or deciding-to move their primaries earlier in the calendar near Iowa and New Hampshire, the two major parties made some decisions. The Republican National Committee stripped states that went before Feb. 5 of half of their delegates while the Democratic National Committee stripped these states of all their delegates. It remains to be seen whether these decisions will hold up, come the national conventions later this year, but that is how it stands at the moment.
Although there is a distinct possibility that, for both parties, a candidate may not win enough delegates to receive the nomination (which would lead to a brokered convention), most political observers seem to agree that Super Tuesday will be decisive for both parties. You can bet that it won’t be easy for any of the candidates to campaign effectively with so many races going on in so many different corners of the country. Even candidates like Obama and Romney, who have huge financial backing, are finding their resources spread thin across the vast array of Super Tuesday states. Imagine the kind of exhaustion that you would feel Tuesday night after campaigning in ten or more states in the space of a week!
As you may have already guessed, candidates are spending the majority of their finances on the bigger states that are scheduled for Tuesday. One reason for this is that media markets in bigger states like California are more expensive than in smaller states like Arkansas. A statewide media purchase in California can cost more than $5 million per week! The other main reason is that big states like California, New York, Illinois and Massachusetts have the most delegates to win for the nomination.
As for my own predictions of what will happen on Super Tuesday: For the Republicans, I believe John McCain will be propelled towards the nomination after strong performances across the country. Rudy Giuliani wasted his legitimate shot at the candidacy by concentrating solely on Florida, and Mike Huckabee has proven that he is a regional candidate that can only win in Iowa and the south. Mitt Romney, who will undoubtedly spend a lot more money for Super Tuesday states than other Republican candidates, is McCain’s only real competition.
However, I don’t think any sum of money would be enough to undo the momentum that McCain has gathered after wins in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida. McCain has to be feeling good at this point, since the Republican who wins South Carolina has gone on to receive the party nomination every year since 1980.
On the Democratic side, I sense another tight race, but this one could go either way. Hilary Clinton has led in most national, large-scale primary state polls, but Barack Obama will undoubtedly gain momentum from his win in South Carolina and some very important endorsements from belated President John F. Kennedy’s brother, Senator Edward Kennedy and daughter Caroline Kennedy. John Edwards’ voters will go to Obama and even Clinton, now that Edwards has dropped out of the race. Will that be enough to rocket Obama to victory after a strong showing on Super Tuesday? While I don’t that anything is possible in the ambiguous realm of politics, I would give Clinton the nod towards the nomination, because she is poised to win delegate-rich states like California and New York.
Now that you know a good deal about the importance of this upcoming Tuesday to our country, I encourage you to vote in both the primary and the general election. Otherwise, don’t get mad when your least favorite candidate rides the Tsunami Tuesday wave toward the nomination and the presidency!
Peter Hamel is a senior in the John Cook School of Business.
