The 2024 election appears to be heading towards a razor thin margin. Here are the seven swing states to watch on election night.
The seven swing states in the United States have several things in common: a highly polarized electorate divided on urban-rural lines and two important coalition factors that will decide this election. Can Kamala Harris retain or gain support from college-educated white voters living in populous suburbs? Can Donald Trump retain or gain support from white working class or non-college-educated white voters and lower propensity voters living across the state? Can Harris retain traditional levels of support from Black and Latino voters?
1. Michigan – 15 electoral votes
Michigan appears to be the most promising swing state for Harris because of its high rate of unionization and urbanization. After the upset victory in 2016, Democrats worked hard to flip the state back in their favor. Democrats won the governor races in 2018 and 2022 by double digit margins and narrowly flipped the state in 2020. Trump’s path to win in this state would rely on heavy turnout from white working class voters in places like Macomb County, outside of Detroit, as well as winning as many voters in rural areas as possible, while hoping that Detroit and its suburbs do not have a high turnout. Michigan has a substantial Muslim and Arab American population which could spell disaster for Harris’ chance of winning the election. Muslim voters have supported Democratic candidates in the past but are increasingly dissatisfied with the party’s position on the War in Gaza. Many Muslims and Arab Americans have said they refuse to vote for Harris.
2. Wisconsin – 10 electoral votes
Wisconsin’s margin in 2016 and 2020 was razor thin. Joe Biden only won the state by 20,000 votes. Democratic strength is centered in Milwaukee and Dane County, home to Madison; Republican strength is centered in the rural areas of the state and the “WOW” counties in Wisconsin: Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington. However, the WOW counties have moved away from Republicans in recent years. Republicans still win these counties, but at increasingly smaller margins. A Harris victory requires either keeping those margins at the 2020 levels or chipping away at them. A Trump victory would rely on high support in the rural areas of the state and reversing current trends in WOW counties.
3. Pennsylvania – 19 electoral votes
Pennsylvania is perhaps the most important swing state in the 2024 presidential election. According to Nate Silver’s model, whoever carries Pennsylvania will win the election. It is the swing state with the most electoral votes. Harris and Trump have been focusing a lot of their attention on this state. Democrats used to do well with the blue collar population, but in recent decades working class voters have switched over to the Republican column. But, they gained more voters in the “collar counties” of suburban Philadelphia, Delaware, Montgomery, Bucks and Chester. Democrats also do well in smaller cities such as Scranton and Allentown. The state’s Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, won in a landslide against a far right candidate, Doug Mastriano and currently has a 60% approval rating. Harris chose Minnesota governor Tim Walz over Shapiro, which may hurt her chances of securing the state. Shapiro as a running mate could have helped her given his popularity in the crucial swing state.
4. North Carolina – 16 electoral votes
North Carolina is a state where Democrats do pretty well on the state level. It has a Democratic governor and attorney general and controls 4/10 statewide executive offices. Since 1901, North Carolina has only had three Republican governors and only one of those was reelected to a second term. However, his performance has not transitioned onto the national level. The state narrowly voted for Barack Obama in 2008, the first vote for a Democrat for president since 1976. After 2008, the results have been very narrow. North Carolina is the only swing state Trump won in 2020. This election, Democrats are hopeful they can win. They have invested a lot of resources into the state. Democrats have bought many ads, opened well staffed campaign offices and amassed a large army of volunteer canvassers. Fast growing cities and metropolitan areas in North Carolina, including the Research Triangle (Raleigh, Durham and Chapel-Hill), Charlotte, Greensboro, Asheville and Winston-Salem could be advantageous for the Harris campaign. These areas contain many young voters who maintain a Democratic vote. The area is also home to a large rural Black population whose votes are essential to a Democratic victory.
5. Georgia – 16 electoral votes
Georgia was an upset win for Biden in 2020. Both senate seats were won by Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock. However, the polling has not been promising this election for the Democratic ticket. Georgia’s electorate is similar to North Carolina’s except that the urban educated population is concentrated in Atlanta and its suburbs. Around 57% of the population lives in the Atlanta area. And like North Carolina, it has a high Black population in its urban and rural areas. In order for Trump to win this state back, winning back suburban and exurban voters in the Atlanta area is essential. For a Harris win, those same suburbs must retain their 2020 levels of support (or do better) and drive turnout in Atlanta’s urban core and the state’s rural Black population.
6. Arizona – 11 electoral votes
Arizona is a state with a high Latino and suburban population, this newly minted swing state was carried by Biden in 2020. Although the polling looks decent for Trump this time around, possibly due to the salience of immigration (Arizona is a border state). Almost 70% of the state’s population lives in and around Phoenix. The other population centers are Pima in the south and Flagstaff towards the north. The state is also home to a high indigenous population, mostly the Navajo who live in the northeast corner of the state. Trump’s tough messaging on immigration may help him flip the state back to him. For Harris to win, she must retain those former Republican suburban voters. Harris has been doing substantial outreach towards those voters. Harris has been touting support from Liz and Dick Cheney, Adam Kinzinger and over 100 endorsements from former Republican administration officials from all republican presidents since Reagan, including eight former Trump administration officials.
7. Nevada – 6 electoral votes
Nevada is a state that has not voted for a Republican since it voted for Bush in 2004. However, it remains a close swing state. 75% of the population resides in Clark County, home to Las Vegas. It is more working class and less college educated compared to the rest of the country and many workers are employed in the hospitality industry. On paper, this state should be tough for Harris to win, but it also has a high Latino population and many of the hospitality workers are unionized. Polling in the state right now is tied. Both campaigns have made strong appeals to the state and promised to cut taxes on tips to win over the votes of the many tipped workers in the state. Trump could flip the state by appealing to working class voters of all races in the Las Vegas Valley and maximizing voter turnout in the very rural parts of the state north of Vegas. Trump must also break away at Democratic support in Washoe County, home to Reno the state’s second largest city.
