President-elect Donald Trump’s economic plan will lead to higher inflation rates, higher prices and future problems for younger generations, according to SLU economics and political science professors. The driving factors of Trump’s economic plan are tax cuts, tariffs and immigration policy. 

Economics department Chair Hailong Qian, Ph.D, said that Trump’s plan to deport illegal immigrants will have an adverse effect on consumer goods production, particularly in the construction and agriculture industries. 

Migrants have been the main driver of labor force growth since 2019. With Trump’s policies, the labor force market will face a sharp decline, forcing salaries and consumer prices up.

“If he follows through (on) his promise that on day one he will deport as many illegal immigrants as possible, he will create chaos. Those people who are still in this country, afraid of looking for a job, will create immediate shortages,” Qian said. 

These shortages will predominantly affect the consumer goods and service industries because many of the farms where grocery goods are harvested rely on illegal immigrants as farm workers. 

“You can see (the) price of groceries will be higher because there will be less number of people employed in this country, which means gross economic activity will be lower, and economic growth will be lower,” Qian said. 

Over time, there will be a demand for higher entry salaries to incentivize people to work, which will increase prices even further for the consumer. 

Trump’s tax policies include a reduction plan that is projected to increase the U.S. budget deficit by $5.8 trillion and predominantly benefit higher income Americans, while pushing the cost of the tax cuts onto the working class by increasing interest rates on credit cards, loans and mortgages. 

“Most likely, corporations will make more money, and I don’t think there will be enough incentive for corporations to lower prices. If he extends his 2017 tax cut that is legal tax, income tax and business tax, what’s going to happen is that it will increase our national debt a lot, by trillions,” Qian said. 

Middle class Americans will pay for this deficit through high interest rates associated with the high risk of borrowing from a country in such a consistently large budget deficit. 

“When our national debt is too high, it means the U.S government will have to pay a high interest rate on borrowing money, so high interest will affect consumer borrowing and consumer spending; also, consumer loans will be more expensive,” Qian said. 

Under Trump’s economic policies, working class and lower income families also risk potential effects on social welfare programs in order to pay for the increased cost of interest payments. 

“The federal government deficit will be much higher, even this year it’s two trillion, but it’s possible by next that it’s three trillion,” Qian said. “That means that the federal government will have to cut many social service programs, which mostly benefit low income (families), for example medicaid or supplement nutrition programs, or even college student loans programs.”. 

Qian said that this model is not sustainable in the long run. He projects that the high interest rate will lower long term economic growth, as the cost of interest payments drain U.S. national resources.

“It’s not sustainable and your generation and the future generation will hurt the most,” Qian said.

Trump proposed heavy tariffs on trade with China, and has threatened to impose tariffs on other countries. Many economists have warned that the tariffs Trump plans to impose are the most consequential aspect of his economic policy, as they will likely cause high inflation in consumer goods, reopen trade disputes between nations and create a drastic shift in global supply chains.

Kenneth Warren, professor emeritus of political science and president of The Warren Poll, a consulting firm on political data, weighed in on the implications of Trump’s tariff plans on foreign trade and global partnerships. 

“He wants to impose all these tariffs everywhere, and I think moving forward you have to do so in cooperation with other nations. So mutual defense pacts, is NATO in trouble, how will congress look upon that? What about these trade partnerships that he doesn’t like?” Warren said. “To go in alone (with his plans) is very dangerous. In fact, it endangers the dollar as a standard, a monetary standard, because a lot of nations are not liking that.”

Warren also commented on the driving forces behind Trump’s presidential win, with a key issue being the Democratic Party losing its working class base.

“The Democratic Party has become more elitist, pushing non-salient issues to working class people such as diversity, gay and lesbian, reproductive health freedom, globalism, and the like. It is not that these are not issues that should be supported, but the point is that they are not salient issues to most Americans. The salient issues are border security and inflationary prices,” Warren said.

Salient issues are key factors that influence voter decisions. Non-salient issues are important stances of the Democratic Party, but do not take prominence over economic security needs. Warren finds evidence of this in exit polling. 

“In household incomes over $100,000, Haris won. Of those with household incomes less than $100,00, Trump won. Of those with college degrees, Harris won, with those without college degrees, Trump won,” Warren said. 

The divide between the Democratic Party and its primary voting base is expressed in the total vote counts this year compared to previous elections. In 2020, Biden won 81 million votes. In 2024, Harris won 69 million, a 12 million count decrease. Comparatively, Trump got 71 million in 2024, and 73 million in 2020. A slight decrease that can be attributed to overall voter turnout, yet marginal compared to the hit the Democratic Party took. 

“This is a total flip flop from a few decades ago when Democrats won among those with less education and low household incomes. Labor unions are also not backing Democrats as much as they once did,” Warren said. 

Warren noted that Harris lost for several other key reasons, one was that she is a Black American. 

“I hate to say it, but there’s enough prejudice that pollsters have measured out there — and it’s not much — it’s voting against Blacks or voting against women, but there’s enough to make the difference,” Warren said. 

The total voter turnout also took a hit in 2024, demonstrating a lack of enthusiasm in this year’s election. In 2024, preliminary total votes counted was 145 million. In 2020, the total was 158 million. Warren thinks that this is a result of general discontent with political parties that has been growing in America since 2008. 

“Go to Gallup historical poll data on country moving in the right or wrong direction,” Warren said. “This same statistic has been present since 2008, the American people have been very unhappy with the direction of the country ever since then.”