The recent 7.9 magnitude earthquake in Gujarat, India, was a natural catastrophe that left behind five billion worth of damage and killed tens of thousands of people. Scientists, however, are optimistic about what can be learned from it.

According to Charles J. Ammon, associate professor in the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, the Indian earthquake can be seen as an analog to the New Madrid fault. The New Madrid fault line is centered in New Madrid, Mo., but extends into neighboring states as well.

The area of Gujarat, India, is similar to the New Madrid area, in that it is located in a large river valley where saturated soils liquify.

“This is the first big one in recent times that is a geologic analog to the New Madrid fault,” said Ammon.

The last major earthquake system that the New Madrid fault produced was in 1811 – 1812, before seismograms were invented. Although these quakes were estimated over magnitude 8.0, Ammon explained that the Indian earthquake could help to determine a more exact measurement of them.

Scientists will be able to use the information taken from India to determine the geologic effects an earthquake would have on the New Madrid region.

“We can use modern instrumentation, such as seismograms, to export information and see New Madrid in a new light with new data,” Ammon said.

Saint Louis University is part of an investigative team that has gone to India to collect preliminary data. No researchers from the University were able to make the trip to India this time.

Ammon predicts that the region will see a magnitude 6.0 earthquake in the next 50 years, but thinks that the chances of a larger one are much smaller. He said this size earthquake would be felt in the St. Louis area, but there would not be much damage.