If you listen carefully, you can almost hear the crack of the bat booming through the winds straight from sunny Florida and Arizona. The art of the game is about ready to unfold, and that means that it’s once again time for Cardinal baseball.

The fanatics are already predicting that the Cardinals will go all the way. People say that the necessary changes were made and nothing can stand in our way. But is predicting baseball truly that simple?

Just because a team goes out and gets that one component that everyone feels they need does not make them an instant winner. Whether it’s a pitcher or a power hitter, a catcher or a Gold Glove outfielder, in baseball there are no sure things.

The Cardinals are not alone here. Throughout baseball history, teams year after year have proclaimed about their newest acquisition, the one that’s a sure bet to make the team champions.

And year after year those teams seem to be the ones that do not win, the ones that fail to make the postseason, the ones that fail to be champions.

As manager of the Astros, Larry Dierker thought he had a sure thing. With a team that consisted of Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio and Derek Bell (when he could hit), Dierker was only concerned with getting that one last ingredient, a big time starter.

Dierker got his wish when the Astros obtained Randy Johnson. Their mega star lost two games in the first round, and the Astros hit the golf course, because in baseball, there are no sure things.

Another example was the much-anticipated acquisition of Ken Griffey Jr. for the Reds. As soon as the Reds signed Griffey, all the major baseball analysts predicted the Reds to win it all.

But there are no sure things in baseball. Griffey got injured, and when he wasn’t sitting on the bench, he was watching strike three. Sure-thing Griffey failed to get the Reds into the playoffs.

Every year the Braves go out and get that sure-thing. After they exit postseason play, it’s clear that they got the wrong ingredient.

It’s the same thing with the Dodgers. Every single year the Dodgers sign a free agent or make a trade, and eventually it proves that they did not have the right ingredient. In baseball there are no sure things.

The Texas Rangers signed star player Alex Rodriguez to a huge contract expecting to solve their missing ingredient problem with a sure thing. The Colorado Rockies expected their missing ingredient Mike Hampton to steer them into the postseason. Both teams failed to make the playoffs because there are no sure things in baseball.

Then again there are a few times that a pivotal trade or free-agent signing paid off. The Diamondbacks traded for starter Curt Schilling, and it proved to be a great move.

Schilling dominated during post-season play and the Diamondbacks became World Champions. The Florida Marlins went out and got Gary Sheffield, Kevin Brown and a plethora of others and became World Champions in one season.

This look at past seasons shows that sometimes trades and free agents pay off, but most of the time they don’t.

Cardinal fans everywhere: Be warned about expecting the Cardinals to win it all. Is Tino Martinez or Jason Isringhausen a sure thing? In the past, teams have acquired better players than those two and have failed to win it all.

Somewhere in the back of our minds we know there is no sure thing in baseball, but with the first pitch of the season we will refuse to believe this. Cardinal fans everywhere will cheer and hope for the best-hope our sure thing works out.