As the college basketball regular season comes to an end, I'm going to let you in on a little secret: Only four teams in America have a legitimate shot at winning the national championship. Forget this parity nonsense. It doesn't take Dick Vitale to tell who is a contender and who is a pretender in college hoops.
Four teams, Illinois, Syracuse, Duke and North Carolina, have emerged as the teams to beat in college basketball, and you'll be seeing a lot more of them come March.
Illinois has to be the late-season favorite to win the national championship. After defeating Wisconsin 70-59 in Champaign last week, the Fighting Illini are likely to become the first undefeated team since Indiana in 1976. Their unblemished record is due in large part to their guard play. Illinois boasts one of the best guard trios in the country; leading-scorer Luther Head (16.9 ppg), the speedy, one-man fast break Dee Brown (13.2 ppg) and the pass first, shoot second Deron Williams (12.5 ppg) have the Illini atop the basketball world.
Illinois, however, will not be atop the basketball world in March. The Fighting Illini lack a dominant inside presence, play in a weak conference and have yet to face a true challenge both at home and on the road, except Wisconsin. Illinois is this year's version of St. Joseph's; and don't expect a different outcome.
If you want a team from a major conference with a strong inside-outside game, look no further than Syracuse. Gerry McNamara (16.1 ppg) and Hakim Warrick (20.6 ppg) is arguably the best duo in college basketball. Warrick and McNamara, along with Jim Boeheim's swarming 2-3 defense, give the Orangemen a chance to win their second championship in three years.
As Warrick and McNamara go, so do the Orangemen. Syracuse is not a deep team; their only other reliable playmaker is Josh Pace (11.0 ppg), and the Orangemen will struggle if McNamara and Warrick are contained.
Great players and even greater coaching have made Duke a perennial powerhouse; Mike Krzyzewski is the best coach in college basketball. Rest assured, his team will be contending for a title.
J.J. Redick (22.5 ppg) is the best shooter in the nation; he shoots 93 percent from the foul line, 42 percent from three-point land, and has range from different area codes. Shelden Williams (16.3 ppg, 11.9 rpg) is the best post player in college hoops, and Daniel Ewing is fearless. As if scoring 82.4 points per game isn't enough, the Blue Devils play stingy defense, allowing just more than 65 points per game.
So how does a team with a great coach, stellar offense and stifling defense not win the national championship? It's simple. Duke relies too heavily on the three-point shot.
The Blue Devils make 8.9 threes per game, but a team that lives by the three will eventually die by the three.
Duke also lacks a deep bench. If Shelden Williams is in foul trouble (and he usually is), Duke becomes predictable in offense and easier to drive to the basket on defense without the Landlord to swat shots away.
The University of North Carolina is the deepest, most talented team in the country and will win the national championship. The Tarheels possess the most balanced and highest-scoring offense in America, scoring 91.2 points per game. Four players (Rashad McCants, Sean May, Raymond Felton and Jawad Williams) are scoring in the double digits. North Carolina leads the ACC in scoring, field-goal percentage, three-point field-goal percentage, free-throw shooting percentage, assists, and steals, and is second in rebounding.
Think about that. This is the ACC we're talking about. North Carolina has a reputation for playing poor defense. If their defense is so bad, how do they average 10.8 steals per game? And if you're the highest-scoring team in America and beating teams by 21.7 points you don't need to have a shutdown defense. The numbers don't lie; the Tarheels have the poise and maturity to win a national championship.
You still don't believe me? We'll see what happens in March. I'd hate to say I told you so.
