March Madness, a.k.a., the time of year when every sports junkie with a remote control and an opinion on the subject attempts to break down an NCAA tournament bracket that resembles the Washington, D.C. subway system.
It's a tawdry mess that always seems to turn out at least a couple Frank Capra-esque stories, along with more than a few tales of despair and close calls. The story lines are the same, it's just the characters who change. To try to break down 65 teams, a few hundred players, a thousand sports pundits and a couple million bracket pool scenarios would be a waste of time and energy…for you. It's actually pretty easy for me, but I am simply choosing not to enlighten the world: It would ruin too many bracket pools.
Instead, I am going to focus on one sad story that played out days before the first tournament game tip-off. It happens every year: A deserving team is either left out or snubbed by the tournament selection committee. Overall, tournament snubs are common. But the real atrocity this year happened to a fellow Conference USA team that celebrated the final year of their membership to the league, just as SLU has this year: the Louisville Cardinals. The atrocity was only brought to my attention by a recent SLU grad, and die-hard U of L fan, who just so happens to be one of the individuals who, back in 2000, invented the "Hein-richter Scale" in honor of then SLU center Chris Heinrich.
Ricky Pitino's Louisville Cardinals, the regular season and post-season tournament Conference USA winners, is a team that absolutely dominated SLU in their lone meeting earlier this season.
But back to Louiville. This year, the Cardinals were a a top-10 team and, for all intents and purposes probably should have been rewarded with a low No. 2 seed, a No. 3 seed at the lowest. Selection Sunday rolls around, and lo and behold, the Cardinals are dealt a No. 4 seed.
I haven't heard a slap that big since Bill told Hillary about a girl named Monica. The four No. 2 seeds are Oklahoma State, Wake Forest, Kentucky and UConn. Kentucky and Wake both won their regular season conference crowns, so yes, they deserved the seedings. Oklahoma State nailed the Big 12 tournament title. So those three get them. But UConn? Not so much. So let's go to the break downs. This is every possible conceivable statistic that the tournament selection committee could have used to figure out seedings; see if you can find how UConn gets the No. 2 seed and Louisville gets the No. 4.
RPI: UConn is 17, U of L is 11.
Record: UConn 22-7, U of L 29-4.
Sagarin: 13th vs. 7th.
Record in last 10 games: 8-2 vs. 9-1.
Record on the road: 8-4 vs. 14-2.
Record vs. RPI top 50: 14-7 vs. 17-4.
Poll Ranking: No. 14 vs. No. 4.
League Champion: No and Yes.
Vs. NCAA teams: 6-5 vs. 8-2.
But a wise man once said that there are "lies, damned lies and statistics." A stupid man once said, "numbers, numbers, numbers, letters, letters, letters." Whichever school of thought you belong to, it really comes down to how you answer this one question: Who do you think is the better team? I say Louisville; of course, I also said that Howard Dean would get the Democratic nod for president and that the iPod was just a phase.
Of course, Louisville fans might also say that the shady seedings came down to the fact that the head of the NCAA selection committee is a communist; er, the University of Kentucky's athletic director.
At the least, the Cardinals should have gotten a No. 3 seed and been able to shirk the burden of playing a top seed in the Sweet 16. Of course, playing in a region where Washington (coached by former SLU coach Lorenzo Romar) is the top seed in the bracket, they might not even have to face a one-seed until the Final Four. But I don't think they'll make it that far. I think they'll get to the Elite 8 only to lose to eventual champion, Wake Forest.
Joining Wake Forest in my Final Four is Oklahoma State from the Chicago region, after they knock off Illinois in the Elite 8, Oklahoma, after running through a weak Austin bracket and North Carolina, playing in a stacked Syracuse bracket but escaping after squeaking by a solid Florida team in the Sweet 16 and blowing out Kansas in the Elite 8, a fun game for former Jayhawks coach Roy Williams.
So UNC, Wake, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Two ACC schools and two Big 12 schools. That will be cut down to just two ACC schools when Wake takes OSU and UNC takes OU. Finally, it's gonna be Wake Forest taking home the hardware two weeks from Monday.
It's not going to be clean, but it's going to be a lot of fun to watch.
-JS
I don't think 2005 will deviate from the recent norm with another one seed taking it all home. Which will it be? Let's take a look at each of the regions and decide.
Syracuse is said by many to be the toughest region. The potential UNC-Kansas Elite 8 match-up is mouth watering for any fan of college basketball. Who wouldn't love to see Roy Williams face his old squad? Yet, the more pressing question is, can Kansas get there?
Kansas' Wayne Simien may be the most dominant player in college basketball. However, the talented Jayhawks have stifled themselves into becoming overly reliant on the big man. Their late season falloff is indicative. Wisconsin in the second round or Big East champ UConn are both significant hurdles.
No matter who North Carolina faces, though, there are very few excuses for the Tar Heels not to make it out of this bracket-but as Kansas knows, Roy Williams often finds ways to mess up a good thing (more on that later).
Albuquerque is by far the weakest bracket, but fans of Cinderellas should love this region as there is no clear standout team. Anyone from top-seeded Washington to fifth-seeded Georgia Tech has a legit shot at the Final Four. Yet, it's hard to make a confident selection. So, I'll hesitantly defer to a Chris Paul-led Wake Forest for advancement.
Off to Chicago, where Illinois was the best team all season long. They are privy to a very favorable home field advantage, starting in Indianapolis and ending up in the Windy City; but other than that, the selection committee didn't make it very easy for them.
They have the toughest of the two and three seeds, along with a formidable four in their brackets-Oklahoma State, Arizona and Boston College, respectively.
It won't be easy. Playing a fairly weak Big 10 schedule, it's been awhile since Illinois has seen a top-notch challenger. They have quite a few on deck. Still, I like the Illini and their balanced play to overcome the tough road ahead for a trip to the Edward Jones Dome.
Austin features Mr. March, coach Mike K.rzyewski, who fought hard all season long to squeeze every drop he could out of this year's Duke squad. Now, the Blue Devils may just be running on fumes, squeaking by Georgia Tech in the ACC finals. They have a solid starting five, led by the unreal shooting talent of J.J. Reddick, but lack the sufficient depth to get them past Syracuse in the Sweet 16.
The Orange hit some speed bumps this season in the nation's most balanced conference, the Big East, but are finally playing very solid basketball coming off the conference tournament win. Team leaders Gerry McNamara and Hakim Warrick already have one national championship under their belts. And despite their poor play against ranked opponents and a tough first round match versus Vermont, I like the Orange to come out of this region based on their experience. My biggest sleeper pick rests here as well. Watch for All-American stud Keith Bouget to overcome Kentucky and bring Utah to the Elite 8.
In the Final Four I'm going to make the gutless pick and go for the game many have been waiting for all season long, Illinois versus UNC in the finals.
Between the two, North Carolina is the better team. They have more talent; they played in a much tougher conference; they are more battle tested. Sean May should push around James Augustine. Raymond Felton and Rashad McCants should outrun Dee Brown and Luther Head with the patented Tar Heels transition offense. All of these things should happen, but Illinois will win.
This may sound spiteful, but it's impossible for me to pick a Roy Williams coached team to win it all. That list of reasons Carolina "should" win is pretty ample. But it would take more than my fingers and toes to count up the things that "should" have happened for Roy and didn't (see Kansas in 1991, 1994, 1996, 1997, 1998 and 2003 for a few prime examples).
When it comes to filling out brackets, I've learned from my mistakes. Will Roy ever learn from his? This may be his year to prove me wrong.
The unprecedented may occur and he will finally win a championship; until then, Illini 74-69.
-RS
