North Carolina over Illinois. I called it back in February and I did so again for good measure in March. You might be kicking yourself for not listening to me. It's okay-you're not alone. Most of my friends are looking a little sore since I took all of their money after winning our tournament pool.
But basketball is over (I know the NBA playoffs are approaching, but like I said, basketball is over), and baseball is in full swing.
It's been a surprising start to the 2005 season of Major League Baseball; the Yankees and Red Sox were dwelling near or at the cellar of the AL East standings, Minnesota was last in the AL Central, Pat Burrell led the league in home runs and RBIs and the Nationals suffered back-to-back complete game shutouts at the hands of the Marlins. Well, not everything has been entirely shocking.
With such an unexpected start to the season, how do you know who's for real and who's going to implode as the season heats up?
I'll start with the National League. Two of these three division races won't even be close, and the one that is won't even matter.
The Braves have the NL East won. They've won the division 14 years in a row, and this season will be no different.
Signing closer Danny Kolb allows John Smoltz to return to Atlanta's rotation, where he will be the reliable and dominant starter he was several years ago.
Number-two starter Tim Hudson is going to be lights out all year. After leaving Oakland to come to the National League, Hudson is going to win at least 18 games in 2005. The Braves' offense isn't incredibly intimidating, but with Andruw and Chipper Jones leading the attack, it'll be good enough to outlast the Florida Marlins by four games.
The NL Central will be the most compelling division race in baseball this year.
The Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals will battle down to the wire with the Cubs getting the nod by three games.
Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds will put up huge numbers again, but the rest of the offense won't be as dominant as it was last year, which will reveal the Cardinals' Achilles' heel: starting pitching. This race will only be close if Kerry Wood and Mark Prior cannot stay healthy throughout much of the season.
With Carlos Zambrano and Greg Maddux harnessing the third and fourth spots in the rotation, a healthy Prior and Wood makes this unquestionably the best starting rotation in baseball.
Although the offense relied too heavily on the long ball last year, losing Sammy Sosa and Moises Alou will force them to manufacture runs-and with the pitching they have, they won't need to manufacture many.
And now for the division race nobody cares about: the NL West. I'll take the Giants by a game. Like it matters. Not one team in this division has any chance of doing anything in the postseason.
Like the NL East, the AL East is all locked up. After upgrading three-fifths of its starting rotation and adding arguably the most dominant pitcher in baseball, Randy Johnson, the New York Yankees will take the division over the Boston Red Sox, a team coming off its first World Series title since World War I. Although Boston did improve offensively (if that's even possible), aside from Curt Schilling, the rest of the starting rotation is full of question marks.
The AL Central and the AL West will both be close races, but ultimately the Minnesota Twins, led by Johann Santana, will survive a scare from the Cleveland Indians and the Los Angeles Angels will surpass the Texas Rangers.
The Indians play with a lot of heart, but they simply lack the depth and sheer talent to overtake a team like Minnesota, which is fundamentally sound in every aspect of the game.
The same can be said for the Texas Rangers, who possess the best infield in baseball. The Angels' offense is simply too good for the Texas starting five to handle. Expect another ridiculous season from Vladimir Guerrero.
As for the playoffs, Chicago and New York will be hosting games in the Fall Classic, with the Yankees prevailing in seven games for their 27th World Series ring. What? You still don't believe me? I'd really hate to say I told you so…again. See you in October.
