Barring injury, plague or natural disaster, the San Antonio Spurs are going to win the 2005-06 NBA championship.
There, I said it. You don’t have to follow the season, watch a single game, or even finish reading this article. But, in case I’m wrong, I’ll tell you which dark horses have the best chance of winning it all.
When you think of San Antonio you think of Tim Duncan, and justifiably so. The Big Fundamental is the best player in the league, and his talent is matched only by his humility. Foreign imports Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili form one of the most talented and underrated backcourts in the league. Although neither one has jaw-dropping stats, both play with a hustle and unselfishness that epitomizes what San Antonio is all about. The additions of Michael Finley and Nick Van Exel give the Spurs an even deeper bench than the one that played a crucial role in their championship run a year ago.
If by some act of divine intervention the Spurs do not win the championship, look for six teams (three from the West and three from the East) to compete for a title.
I’ll start with the rest of the West.
In San Antonio’s Southwest Division is a team that could surprise a lot of people in June: The Houston Rockets.
The Rockets boast one of the top five players in the league-Tracy McGrady-and one of the top three big men, Yao Ming. McGrady is a complete player; he’ll average 25-5-5 again this year. Yao, the number one pick in the 2002 draft, has steadily improved and become a dominant low-post presence; if he doesn’t block a shot, he’ll use his 7’6” frame to alter it. What makes Yao so effective is that he can beat you on both ends of the floor, and he looks primed for the first 20-10 season of his career. For a team that ranked third in the NBA in points allowed last year, the Rockets don’t get enough credit for their defense. It should come as no surprise, though–in each of Rockets’ coach Jeff Van Gundy’s seven seasons, his teams have finished in the top five in points allowed.
Moving to the Northwest, the Denver Nuggets will take the division, with Carmelo Anthony leading the way. The former Syracuse sensation is in the best shape of his life, having shed 20 pounds from his bulky frame. While the Nuggets won’t have any problems putting points on the board (they averaged 99.5 points per game last year), they’ll need to improve defensively (after allowing nearly 98 points per game last season). While the Nuggets are an exciting team to watch, a run-and-gun style of play has had little success in the grind-it-out affair that is the NBA playoffs. Denver’s half-court offense and their shooting percentage will need to improve if they plan on playing deep into the post-season.
The Pacific Division will be a two-team race between the Phoenix Suns and the Sacramento Kings. Most analysts are downplaying Amare Stoudemire’s knee injury and the loss of Quentin Richardson, but I don’t see this team coming close to the 62 wins they had a year ago.
The Kings, meanwhile, have a solid trio in Peja Stojakovic, Mike Bibby and Brad Miller, and have added two versatile players to their starting line-up: Bonzi Wells and Shareef Abdur-Rahim. Sacramento ranked second in the league in scoring last year. Look for them to make some noise come playoff time if they can bolster their matador defense.
Shifting focus to the East, there appear to be four legitimate title contenders. Most analysts are picking the New Jersey Nets to win the Atlantic Division, but I think that honor will go to the Philadelphia 76ers. Allen Iverson is pound-for-pound the toughest player in the league; his passion is contagious, and he brings the best out of his teammates. Iverson averaged over 30 points and nearly eight assists per game last season, and this year won’t be any different. Chris Webber must stay healthy and accept his status as the second option on offense, which shouldn’t be a problem. New head coach Maurice Cheeks has the respect of his players and the city. Look for him to lead Philadelphia back to prominence.
The Central Division is primed for a two-team race between the Detroit Pistons and Indiana Pacers. Although the Pacers are the preseason favorite to finish first in the East, I don’t see it happening. Indiana’s trio of Jermaine O’Neal, Ron Artest and Stephen Jackson is certainly talented, but the rest of the team simply isn’t that intimidating. The Pistons have what I believe to be the best starting five in the NBA. They’re going to miss Larry Brown’s leadership, but Flip Saunders plans on utilizing a talented yet underused bench. The Pistons have the best defense in the league behind San Antonio, and their mental toughness allows them to execute in crunch time. They’ve been to the NBA Finals two years in a row, and they’re still the team to beat in the East.
The team from the East with the best chance of beating the Pistons is the Miami Heat. For all the hype that LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony have received, Dwyane Wade has been the most consistent player selected from the 2003 draft. He’s already regarded by some as a top-five talent. Shaq is getting older, but he’s still the most dominant center in the league. Some analysts think the additions of Antoine Walker, Jason Williams and Gary Payton will disrupt team chemistry, but I disagree; Williams is not the turnover-prone question mark he once was, Walker understands that Wade and Shaq are the leaders of this team, and Gary Payton will take any role to get his first championship. After coming within one game of reaching the NBA Finals last year, I expect Miami to get over the hump this season, defeating the Pistons in the Conference Finals.
Miami might have the best chance of beating San Antonio this year, but I wouldn’t bet on it if I were you.
