With the NFL draft still approximately a month away, there are bound to be shakeups in the prognostications of experts between now and then. Prospects are moving up and down teams’ draft boards with the liquidity of the international financial markets. But the curious fan has to wonder about the different reasons as to why a prospect changes his draft position from the end of the college season to Arpil.
Sure, there is the Senior Bowl and the NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis that changes a team’s perception, but it seems that there are other factors that can convince a team about the value of a prospect.
Now, more than ever, it seems as though NFL general managers are heeding the advice of sportswriters across the country far too much.
Notorious among those writers is ESPN.com’s Chris Mortensen. I firmly believe that Mortensen feels it is a yearly task to see how high he can make a particular player jump on NFL draft boards. Last year, Mortensen was successful in almost single-handedly vaulting Arkansas’ Matt Jones from third-round project to first-round super stud. This year, it appears as though Mortensen has chosen another former SEC quarterback to make even richer: Vanderbilt’s Jay Cutler.
Mortensen has touted Cutler as the best quarterback in the draft and worthy to be selected above USC’s Matt Leinert and Texas’ Vince Young. I honestly don’t know if Mortensen believes what he is writing, or if this has just turned into a game for him. He makes a lucid argument for Cutler, citing his mobility, arm strength and strong numbers in spite of his being surrounded by marginal talent.
My friend Jack and I have a bet that Alabama’s Brodie Croyle will vault into the first round, based solely on the ramblings of statistics nerds who get paid to write sports articles for a living (Yes, I realize the irony!). That bet will be determined on the weekend of the draft, but it seems that, for now, I am safe-I said Croyle will not jump up. However, there is still another month, and cnnsi.com’s Peter King surely has a lot of ink left in his Mont Blanc.
It is clear that general managers in various leagues read the pundits and what they have to say. New York Knicks’ general manager Isaiah Thomas spouted off on a New York radio show about Page 2’s Bill Simmons, who managed to sneak in a rant about Thomas in every article. Thomas said it was going to be ugly if he and Simmons ever met on the street. So, not only did Thomas read what Simmons had to say, but he also took his comments to heart . is this the case with all GM’s?
One year ago yesterday, Mortensen published his piece on Jones, and here is the lead from that story: “Matt Jones is not a projected first-round pick, but he’s the best player available in the draft.” Does that mean Mortensen would have taken him with the first pick of the draft?
Granted, Jones had great measurables. He is 6’6″, 240 pounds and was clocked below 4.4 seconds in the 40-yard dash. However, for every workout warrior who makes it big in the NFL, there are dozens of Mike Mammulas or Brian Bosworths or Mike Junkin. The difference between those three and Jones? Jones played quarterback in college, but scouts were unsure if he would play tight end, wide receiver or h-back in the pros. Those other three had defined positions, and they still fizzled out. A great combine does not make a great NFL player.
Now, I think Jones has potential and could still develop into a great NFL wide receiver. Hines Ward did it, and to a lesser extent Antwaan Randle El as well. But Ward was drafted in the third round, and Randle El in the closing picks of the second round. Other such projects, like Kordell Stewart, Eric Crouch or Scott Frost, failed miserably. But Mortensen’s words of wisdom got Jack Del Rio and the Jacksonville Jaguars to bite.
Now it is Cutler’s turn to be a barometer for how influential Mortensen can be.
