The race for the GOP nomination has become more unpredictable and fickle than anyone could have guessed. From Rudy Giuliani to Mike Huckabee, from Mitt Romney to John McCain, there is no such thing as a frontrunner in this contest.
Here’s a quick recap. In the several months leading up to the elections, Giuliani was a hands-down favorite, leading by double digits in the polls. But the landscape quickly began to shift after the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3, when Huckabee won a decisive victory over Romney. On Jan. 5, Romney won the Wyoming primary. On Jan. 8, McCain won decisively in New Hampshire. Jan. 15: Romney wins Michigan; Jan. 19: McCain wins South Carolina and Romney, Nevada. Romney holds the lead in the number of delegates.
There is no clear leader in this competition and it is truly a free-for-all. Giuliani has had absolutely no presence during these first few weeks, but this isn’t a surprise. His Manhattan republican background makes him unpopular to the voters of the early primary states. No matter how much money he had spent in those states, his results probably wouldn’t have significantly improved. His strategy has been to bypass these early states altogether and dump as much money as he can into the states he can win, namely Florida and many of the Super Tuesday (Feb. 5) states.
Giuliani is beginning to slip in the polls, but has an advantage over McCain, his key competitor. He is more attractive to Republicans, which will be key in the upcoming states that have closed primaries (where only registered Republicans can vote). McCain is very popular among Independents, and his campaign has been targeting the center far more than Giuliani’s. Several state polls still show Giuliani in the lead by a significant margin, which could give him enough delegates to be nominated (which is, after all, what matters).
McCain is interesting because, while it seems that he is benefitting from momentum, his loss in Michigan is not explained by that theory. He has a history in Michigan, it’s an open primary, and it’s a politically moderate state. But what is crucial to Michigan voters is the economy, and the conservative solution is tax cuts, which McCain has loudly opposed ever since he ran against Bush eight years ago. He has taken the lead by nearly 10 points in national polls and now leads in Florida and California. Right now, watching his acceptance speech in South Carolina, I think many people (I know I did) thought to themselves, “This guy could be it.” Polls show him beating head-to-head elections with both democrats. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves: There are still a lot of variables and a lot of time.
Huckabee is a flash in the fire, and I honestly believe that is all he is. In Iowa, he appealed to his evangelical base purely on identity politics. He won Iowa, but then didn’t even contest any states until South Carolina (where he couldn’t even win against the moderate McCain). His loss Saturday night, however narrow, proved that he cannot extend his support beyond a small evangelical voting bloc. He may do well in some upcoming states, including his home state, Arkansas, and others with significant evangelical presence, but in the long run I think he is out of the picture. His liberal politics will only continue to turn away non-evangelical republicans that have no other reason to support him.
And finally, the fourth contender in the race is the Massachusetts Mormon, Romney. He is statistically the leader, with 21 more delegates than second-place Mike Huckabee. Romney’s main advantage is his personal wealth, which he is using to fund much of his campaign. This is how he pulled out a decent showing in Iowa as an east-coast Republican, and the same in New Hampshire as a conservative alternative to McCain. He was also able to put decent sums of money into “small” states like Nevada and Wyoming, allowing him to virtually sweep. He is nearly identical to Giuliani in almost every way, but Romney is more capable of getting his name and message out with his money. Even though their views on certain issues are similar, Giuliani just has an inexplicable appeal to certain votes that Romney doesn’t. Jon Voigt’s recent endorsement of Giuliani is an example. It’s that kind of voter that Giuliani will attract, who are prevalent in states like New York, Illinois, and California.
The way these candidates interact with each other is difficult to analyze, but I don’t think they really do. Because they each have different appeals to different voters, and are doing so differently on a state-by-state basis, they aren’t really stealing votes from one another in any significant manner.
As the race goes on, it becomes more muddled rather than clearer. Even if McCain wins Florida, it is still up for grabs. With 22 states having primaries and caucuses on Feb. 5, momentum will not be as important as people vote without having a real sense of how the rest of the country is doing.
If you are a Republican, go out and vote and pick whom you honestly want to be president. Don’t choose someone because of their standings in the polls or delegate count; in this election, I know it sounds cheesy, but every vote matters. Think about what is most important to you and find the right candidate. It is, after all, the most important right you can exercise as an American.
Brett Kostrzewski is a freshman in the College of Arts and Sciences.
