Orange Bowl: No. 15 Northern Illinois vs. No. 12 Florida State, Jan. 1
Fret not, BCS bashers–a Cinderella candidate has arrived to the ball. The Northern Illinois Huskies snuck into the Orange Bowl, finishing in the top 16 of the final BCS standings behind a 12-1 record. Florida State lands here by virtue of being the Atlantic Coast Conference champion, finishing the regular season with an 11-2 record. The Seminoles, led by the seventh-best scoring defense in the country, will be favored heavily over the Huskies. However, NIU has a puncher’s chance with quarterback Jordan Lynch under center. Lynch emerged as a Tim Tebow-lite, throwing for 24 touchdowns and rushing for another 19. In the process, he set the record for most rushing yards by a quarterback in a single season. Lynch may be the mid-major Superman, but FSU will have kryptonite flowing through their veins. Look for FSU’s defensive line to overpower NIU and pressure the elusive Lynch. Seminole quarterback E.J. Manuel will have a field day against an average NIU secondary, giving FSU a 38-17 blowout win.
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. No. 6 Stanford, Jan. 1
Don’t be fooled by Wisconsin’s 8-5 record. They’re a solid, hard-nosed team whose five losses came by a grand total of 19 points. The Badgers got off to a slow start while replacing their starting quarterback and the bulk of their offensive line, but came together when it mattered, stomping Nebraska 70-31 to win the Big Ten Championship. Stanford surprised a few by winning the Pac-12, knocking off Oregon and USC in the process. They’ve been able to exceed preseason expectations with a stingy defense and a mid-season quarterback change. If you’re looking for physical, old-school football, this is your game. Stanford’s third-ranked rushing defense will try to stuff Wisconsin running back Montee Ball, the nation’s third-leading rusher. If Stanford can shut down Wisconsin like they did Oregon, they’ll cruise to a victory. The Cardinal offense and running back Stefan Taylor will scrap together enough points for a 24-17 Stanford victory.
Sugar Bowl: No. 21 Louisville vs. No. 3 Florida, Jan. 2
Meet the Florida Gators, a team with a supermodel defense and an offense only a mother could love. The Gators’ offense ranks 105th in the country in total yards per game, yet still came a fumble away from an undefeated regular season record. Only a defense forged from steel and soaked in liquid anger could offset an offense that putrid. Luckily, only Florida State has cracked the 20-point mark against the Gators. Louisville earns a BCS spot as Big East champions. In recent years (last year notwithstanding), the Big East BCS representative has been more of a sacrificial lamb than opponent. On paper, Louisville seems to be the former. Their defense has been so-so, and their offense has slipped as of late. However, they still won 10 games and have one of the most clutch performers in the country leading the way, Teddy Bridgewater. The quarterback became a Louisville legend after guiding the Cardinals to a conference championship win over Rutgers, playing with a broken wrist and severely sprained ankle. Florida is expected to walk over the Cardinals, and justifiably so.
However, keep this in mind: Louisville is playing with house money. Remember Utah and Alabama a few years back? It’s a similar scenario. Alabama came out flat after missing out on the national championship game, and Utah made them pay. Louisville isn’t quite there yet, but can make it interesting. The Gators will be tested before ultimately prevailing, 24-21.
Fiesta Bowl: No. 5 Kansas State vs. No. 4 Oregon
This bowl should be renamed “The Disappointment Bowl.” Three weeks back, K-State and Oregon were primed to square off for the national championship. Both saw their title dreams crushed on the same weekend. The matchup pits two teams with polar opposite styles, but similar substance.
On one side, you have the Ducks. Their Ferrari of an offense and up-tempo style leaves their opponents grabbing for jersey and gasping for air. On the other stands KSU, with an offense more like a 1966 Corvette: equally powerful, equally sexy, but a product of yesteryear. Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota and running back Kenjon Barner can score in the blink of an eye.
Kansas State, led by quarterback Colin Klein, can score quickly as well, but they like to punch you in the mouth before doing so. In the end, it will come down to defense.
Each squad has had their ability to stop the ball overshadowed by their ability to move it, but both Oregon and KSU have quietly put together solid defenses. Three weeks ago, I would have trusted in the wizardry of Wildcats head coach Bill Snyder to defeat the 1985 Chicago Bears. After seeing KSU shredded by Baylor, I cringe at the thought of them trying to stop Oregon. The Ducks run away with this one (literally), 52-31.
BCS National Championship: No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 1 Notre Dame
Here’s a sample of things I never thought would write for public consumption: “Justin Bieber releases heavy metal album,” “Nicholas Cage should do more movies,” “Actual key to happiness found in Montana Arby’s bathroom.” Until I actually wrote it, “No. 1 Notre Dame” was on that list. I just could not conceive the possibility of Notre Dame rising from the ashes and returning to the college football mountaintop. Every single time the Irish appeared to be back, they went bust.
They didn’t just go bust; they imploded in epic fashion, a flame-riddled disaster straight out of a cheesy action movie (probably featuring Nicholas Cage). After the sixth time or so, I became skeptical of Notre Dame. My cynicism continued this season. After they crushed Oklahoma on the road, I thought to myself, “Just give it a few weeks. They’ll inexplicably lose in triple overtime to Wake Forest on a reverse fake punt fumblerooski.”As the wins piled up, my condescending smile began to fade. Is Notre Dame…dare I say…good? Then the Pittsburgh game happened. All the breaks and calls which had seemingly gone against Notre Dame for the past 24 years broke their way. The luck of the Irish had returned.
It’s going to take more than luck to overcome Alabama, college football’s resident juggernaut. Tide head coach Nick Saban doesn’t simply field good football teams. He assembles units of indestructible football warriors, trained to disintegrate lesser foes. All joking aside, Alabama’s teams in recent years have been scary. Top to bottom, this team could be the best in the country, but there are chinks in the armor.
The two teams are eerily similar in multiple meaningful statistics. They’re both ranked within 15 spots of each other in the following: yards allowed per game, points allowed per game, rush defense, total offense and red-zone defense. Neither Alabama nor Notre Dame has given opposing offenses an inch. On offense, Alabama seems to have the edge, scoring more points per game and boasting a more balanced attack. This game will come down to whichever team can produce big passing plays. Both teams will try to run and stop the run; it is their respective bread and butter. Given Alabama’s more effective passing attack, they will win their third national championship in four years, cementing their dynasty status. In a battle of the two most storied programs in college football history, Alabama wins, 27-24.
