After the magical run that saw the Billikens upset the No. 8 seeded Memphis Tigers and nearly upset the No. 1 seeded Michigan State Spartans in the third round of the NCAA tournament last year, Billiken fans are understandably excited for the this years tournament to start. A quick look at the most recent Bracketology update from ESPN’s bracket guru Joe Lunardi shows the Billikens sitting at a 12 seed. Not exactly a lock. Why is it then, with a resume that includes two wins over top 25 teams, after the grand total zero last year, are they still fighting to lock up their spot to the big dance?
One factor probably has to do with the tournaments the Billikens played in at the beginnings of the last two seasons. Last year the Billikens played in the 76 Classic and beat big-time schools Boston College, Villanova and Oklahoma to take home the trophy. This year, they participated in the CBE Hall of Fame Classic where they dispatched Texas A&M with ease before losing to then-No. 12 Kansas by 14 in the championship game. The Billikens played much of the championship game short-handed, with the likes of Jordair Jett, Kwamain Mitchell and Grandy Glaze looking on from the bench.
The other factor has to do with the puzzling losses to Santa Clara, Washington and the recent overtime loss to Rhode Island. Two of the three losses are comparable to losses that SLU suffered last year, however. SLU’s loss to Santa Clara is comparable to last year’s loss to Loyola Marymount, another West Coast Conference school. SLU also lost to Rhode Island on a buzzer beater toward the end of last season; however, that road loss didn’t hurt as much as this year’s ugly loss to the Rams did, as the Bills looked discombobulated on both ends of the court.
The only striking difference between this year’s résumé and last year’s is the loss to Washington. Last year, SLU defeated the Huskies at Chaifetz by 14 in a game that wasn’t even that close. That Huskies team also featured the No. 8 and No. 25 overall picks in last year’s NBA draft. While all of that sounds great on paper, last year the Huskies were also the first team from one of the six power conferences to win the regular season conference title but not make the NCAA tournament, showing how little the selection committee thought of the under-achieving Huskies.
That is why this year’s loss hurts the résumé more than last year’s win helped. Not only does Washington have no NBA players on its roster, but also they were picked to finish fifth in the Pac-12, which, outside of Arizona, Oregon and an enigmatic UCLA squad, is devoid of talent. More important than an ugly loss is the question the selection committee asks every Cinderella knocking on the doors of the dance: who have you beaten?
For the Billikens, the answer is two convincing wins over top-25 teams (No. 20 New Mexico and No. 9 Butler) and five wins (so far) in the highly competitive A-10, a conference much deeper than last year’s edition.
Looking ahead to the remaining games, the Billikens have two tough must-wins, at Richmond and against the surprising Charlotte 49ers (17-5, 5-2 A-10) before hitting the meat of their A-10 schedule. In the span of one week, the Billikens welcome conference newcomer and leader Virginia Commonwealth to Chaifetz Arena. A win against VCU and no losses in the preceding three games should move the Billikens into the top-25 rankings for the first time this season. A win would also boost the Billikens’ RPI, which currently sits at a mediocre 55. The RPI (Ratings Percentage Index) is one of the main tools used by the selection committee to compare schools on the proverbial NCAA Tournament bubble. Three days after the Billikens welcome VCU, they travel to Hinkle Fieldhouse for a rematch with the Butler Bulldogs. The Billikens finish the season with two road games against George Washington and Xavier followed by two home games against St. Joseph’s and LaSalle.
As long as the Billikens take care of business at home and win three or four of their remaining road games, they will end up with either the same or a one-game-better record than last year. By that point, it shouldn’t matter too much how well they do in the A-10 tournament, as long as they win at least one game. This is all purely speculation, however. The best and easiest way to make sure they are going dancing is for the Billikens to simply win the A-10 tournament and take the automatic qualifying spot that comes with it. Easy enough, right?
