Well, Selection Sunday just got a bit more interesting. By losing to Xavier this afternoon, the Billikens have put themselves in the hands of the NCAA Selection Committee. Tomorrow’s announcement of the March Madness brackets (5:00 p.m. central time on CBS) will reveal SLU’s position in (or out of) the tournament.
Our chances are very good. A 25-7 overall schedule, paired with a ranking of No. 30 in the RPI, means that SLU is likely a lock for the NCAA tournament. However, with zero wins over tournament teams and only two games against RPI Top 50 squads (Temple and New Mexico, both losses), the Billikens’ résumé is not likely to get them a high seeding.
Seeding Outlook:
It’s likely SLU could earn an 8-seed or 9-seed. In the first round of the tournament, the 8-seed and 9-seed play against each other, with the winner taking on the top ranked 1-seed in the second round. While it would give SLU a first round matchup against a team with similar abilities (probably a very winnable game in the first round), it would guarantee a second round matchup with one of the top four teams in the country (Kentucky, Syracuse caliber). The good news: In this scenario, the first round matchup is a very winnable game. The bad news: In order to advance any further, the Bills would have to shock the world and beat a 1-seed.
Likely first-round sites for 8- or 9-seeds (in order of predicted likelihood): Louisville, Ky.; Pittsburgh, Pa.; Greensboro, N.C.; Omaha, Neb.; Columbus, Ohio.
ESPN’s most recent bracket prediction has SLU at a 10-seed. Again, SLU’s résumé almost certainly puts them in the tournament, but it may not match up well against other schools competing for the 8 or 9 spot. A 10-seed would pit SLU against a 7-seed in the first round, with the winner likely taking on a 2-seed in the second round. The good news: Playing a 7-seed is certainly a winnable game, especially for a team with the Billikens’ defense. Oh, and by the way, Missouri will likely be a 2-seed, meaning the Billikens could potentially take on the Tigers if the brackets work out that way. The bad news: Needless to say, SLU would have to get there first. And obviously, a 7-seed is going to be stronger than an 8- or 9-seed, thus making this a tougher first round game.
Likely first round sites for 7-seeds (in order of predicted likelihood): Omaha, Neb.; Greensboro, N.C.; Columbus, Ohio; Pittsburgh, Pa.
It is still possible SLU could end up as an 11-seed. With no wins against tournament teams, the committee could drop the Billikens this far down. It would make for a more difficult first-round game (possibly against a ranked opponent), but would also mean that if the Billikens get past the first round, their second round matchup would be a bit easier (likely against a 3-seed).
There is a small – very, very small – chance that the Billikens could get left out. That’s always an option for any team that doesn’t win their conference tournament. How might that happen? Through a very complicated and highly unlikely situation where the committee could overlook the Billikens. But to be clear, the chances of this happening are slim – if the experts are to be believed, less than 5 percent – so we won’t bore you with the details for now.
